Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index
Rapid Home price growth in North Texas and in cities nationwide continued to break records at the start of the year, but economists expect the market could change its tune in the months ahead. Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March while national prices grew 20.6%, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. "Demand for homes has stubbornly kept ahead of supply this spring, even in the face of rapidly rising costs," said Dan Handy, an economic data analyst for Zillow. "This imbalance between supply and demand for homes this spring has been the key driver in home price growth that continues to set records month after month." The index compares sales price changes of specific properties over time. Case-Shiller's price estimate is considered more accurate than MLS home sales data which can be influenced by the type of properties that are selling each month.
Economists predict the rapid price growth could finally begin to slow in the coming months as buyer demand is softened by affordability challenges. "Mortgage costs are more than 50% higher than they were a year ago, and prospective buyers will likely start to rethink what they can afford," Handy said. "Sellers may already be responding, with the rate of price cuts now on the rise, to meet buyers where they are. Price growth will likely begin to come back towards earth as many buyers are priced out and inventory rises." Dallas-Fort Worth home showings were down 9% year over year in April and 11% since March, according to ShowingTime.
Nearly one in five sellers dropped prices during the four week period ended May 22, Redfin Corp. said in a report Thursday. Other measures of how hot the market is, including a house's time on market and the percentage of homes selling above listing price, have also plateaued. Consumers are contending with some of the highest mortgage rates in years, despite the dip in those figures in the past two weeks. Higher rates, coupled with economic uncertainty, are raising questions about whether the US housing boom has met its limit with signs emerging that the once-intense pace of the market could be decelerating.
Price drops are "becoming increasingly common" in some of the most popular housing markets across the United States. According to a new Redfin data. More than 20% of home sellers dropped their price in May in some of the best markets in the nation. "When mortgage rates were at or belw 3%, both local and out-of-town homebuyers were more than willing to tolerate high prices, but at more than 5%, many are now priced out," redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. "A home's price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, and when demand drops off and supply increases like it is now, rapid price increases evaporate quickly." Areas that saw a huge surge in migration and sharp increases in home prices over the past two years are now seeing "an abrupt drop-off in demand," which is forcing sellers to "drop their prices with increasing frequency," Fairweather said.
Sharply higher mortgage rates have caused a sudden pullback in home sales, and now sellers are rushing to get in before the red-hot market cools off dramatically. "Rising mortgage rates have caused the housing market to shift, and now home sellers are in a hurry to find a buyer before demand weakens further," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.
Sellers clearly see the market softening. Pending home sales were down just over 9% from April 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors. May 2022 will see a larger decrease. This index measures signed contracts on existing homes, not closings, so it is perhaps the most timely indicator of how buyers are reacting to higher mortgage rates. It marks the sixth straight month of sales declines and the slowest pace in nearly a decade.
Local housing supply is beginning to loosen, Realtor.com indicates
Dallas-Fort Worth is seeing a dramatic increase in homes up for sale over the last few weeks as many sellers look to take advantage of the market while it's still red hot. The number of active home listings last week spiked 41.6% from a year prior, the fifth consecutive week of gains, according to Realtor.com. Until April, the company posted supply declines in D-FW every week since March 2020.
The region saw the highest annual growth for any week on record since the company began tracking this figure in 2017.
New listings in D-FW rose 32.4% last week, signaling a huge influx of sellers putting homes on the market as summer approaches. "Sellers have been hearing for about two years what an amazing time it is for them to sell ... and they've seen their equity just grow like crazy," said Mike Reddell, senior executive vice president and managing director for Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Dallas. "With the stock market being wobbly and mortgage rates rising, I think sellers that have been thinking about this for a while, more of them are pulling the trigger and putting the house up for sale."
Reddell said if he were in a position to sell his house, he would do it right now.
Redfin reported May 15 that new listings throughout the U.S. climbed nearly twice as quickly as they did at the same time last year. "Rising mortgage rates have caused the housing market to shift, and now home sellers are in a hurry to find a buyer before demand weakens further," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin, said in a statement.
Mark Wolfe, broker and owner of RE/MAX DFW Associates, said he has seen a significant spike in listings over the past few months. In his home city of Coppell, he said, there would have been only about five or six homes on the market at any one time a few months ago. In just five days last week, he said, 21 homes went up for sale. "We've been a boom economy, and now with the economy showing signs of trouble, people want to still get the most for their dollar while they can if they think that the prices might go down," Wolfe said. "I don't know if that's going to happen. I doubt that's going to happen."
The market is nowhere near balanced between buyers and sellers. Dallas-Fort Worth had just under a month of home supply in April, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. A balanced market would have about six months' worth of inventory. The competitive pressures have sustained high price growth over the past few months. The median home in April sold for $425,576, up 25% from a year earlier. The number of sales in April was down 7% from a year ago, but the dollar volume increased 13% to $4.2 billion.
Rising mortgage rates combined with record-high home prices have drastically increased the monthly cost of buying a home. Homebuilders have also noticed demand cool down through the past few months. "We've been in an unrealistic market for two years, and we're probably headed back to a normal market," Wolfe said. "It might be nice to just have a healthy even market. I'm hopeful that's what we're going to go into."